Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation - Uedu Open

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Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation

IDS.333 - IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

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1 Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates 2 Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts 3 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs 4 Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed 5 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept 6 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences 7 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction 8 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis 9 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation 10 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility 11 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties 12 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win 13 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed 14 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process 15 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves 16 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure 17 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation 18 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project 19 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project 20 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important 21 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale 22 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote 23 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers 24 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages 25 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees 26 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees 27 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis 28 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview 29 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test 30 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test 31 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information 32 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information 33 Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile? 34 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible? 35 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility 36 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function 37 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences 38 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility 39 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions 40 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways 41 Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia 42 Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction 43 Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis 44 Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects 45 Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis

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IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

課程影片 (45)

1 Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates 2 Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts 3 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs 4 Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed 5 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept 6 Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences 7 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction 8 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis 9 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation 10 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility 11 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties 12 Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win 13 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed 14 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process 15 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves 16 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure 17 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation 18 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project 19 Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project 20 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important 21 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale 22 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote 23 Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers 24 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages 25 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees 26 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees 27 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis 28 Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview 29 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test 30 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test 31 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information 32 Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information 33 Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile? 34 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible? 35 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility 36 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function 37 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences 38 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility 39 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions 40 Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways 41 Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia 42 Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction 43 Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis 44 Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects 45 Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis